Scenario 1: Strong Bull Case (Base + Tailwinds align)

• Target zone by end-2026: $180,000 – $220,000

• Pathway:

  1. Macro loosening → USD weakness → liquidity-driven flows

  2. Continued institutional ETF inflows + sovereign adoption

  3. On-chain expansion + layer-2 / DeFi growth

  4. Scarcity narrative strengthens as issuance stays low

• Implied IRR over 2 years: Big upside if all aligns (this is aggressive but plausible)

Scenario 2: Moderate / Balanced Case (Most likely, IMO)

• Target band: $120,000 – $160,000 by late 2026

• Behavior: Choppy rallies, deeper pullbacks, slower grind upward

• Why moderate: Because macro risks (rate hikes, policy, regulation) will act as dragsters on full-throttle speed

Scenario 3: Risk / Bear Case (Shock wave hit)

• Reversal / rangebound: Price chop between $90,000 – $140,000

• Triggers: Aggressive rate hikes, USD rally, regulation clampdowns, capital rotation

Outcome: Rally stalls, capital moves to safer assets, BTC consolidates for extended period

How I’d Trade it (Strategy Playbook)

• Stage-based entries:

  • Accumulate into pullbacks during phases of macro softness

  • Use larger time frame trend breaks (e.g. DXY, yields) to tilt exposure

• Position sizing & trailing layers:

  • In bull mode: start small, pyramiding on confirmation

  • In mixed mode: tight stops, smaller size, avoid chasing near highs

• Event risk management:

  • Watch Fed events, CPI/PPI, central bank moves

  • Use derivatives (options) for hedged exposure near critical resistances

• Cross-asset correlation watching:

Track BTC vs DXY, BTC vs Gold, BTC vs Treasury yields

Chart & Screenshot Plan (You drop in via TradingView)

1. BTCUSD vs DXY (overlay, daily/4H)

   • Note: Plot to show when USD weakens, BTC rally tends to accelerate.

2. BTCUSD, 1-year channel + key resistance lines

   • Note: project path to $200K zone, highlight pivot retracement zones.

3. ETF Inflow / Net Flow panel (if available)

   • Note: correlation between ETF net flows and BTC upsurges.

4. MACD / RSI / Momentum indicators on BTC (monthly / weekly)

   • Note: show whether momentum supports continuation.

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