The Crash No One Expected

Bitcoin plummeted below $97,000 on Friday, November 15, hitting $95,191 – a brutal 24% decline from its October peak. While markets typically rally after government shutdowns end, crypto traders watched $600 billion in market cap disappear.

The 43-day US government shutdown that ended on November 12 cost the economy $7-14 billion permanently. But the political resolution came too late because the real damage was already done elsewhere.

Why the Fed Matters More Than Politics

The Rate Cut Hope Dies

Here's what killed Bitcoin: On November 14, Federal Reserve officials crushed December rate cut expectations.

The Timeline:

• October 10: 95% probability of December rate cut

• November 14: Fed officials speak

• November 15: Probability crashes to 44%

Fed officials emphasized "controlling inflation" and dampening rate cut hopes. When cheap money disappears, Bitcoin suffers because:

• Strong USD crushes risk assets

• Investors flee to 4%+ Treasury yields

• Leveraged positions get liquidated

• Institutions rotate to traditional markets

The proof: $870 million in Bitcoin ETF outflows on November 14 alone, with $1.1 billion in liquidations in 24 hours.

The Crypto Bloodbath

Bitcoin's down 24% from its high. Altcoins are getting destroyed even worse.

Critical Technical Levels

Support to Watch:

• $95,000 – Must hold (current battle)

• $88,000 – Next major support

• $74,000 – Worst case scenario

Resistance:

• $100,000 – Now turned resistance

• $105,000 – 50-week EMA (key level)

ArnavFX Analysis: This is a correction, not a bear market – BUT only if $88,000 holds. Below that, we're in trouble.

What Indian Traders Should Do

The INR Factor

INR strengthening to ₹88/USD creates opportunity: your rupees buy more Bitcoin now. But if BTC keeps falling, you lose in both currencies.

Action Plan for Delhi NCR & Pune Traders

✅ DO:

• Scale in: 25% at $95K, 25% at $88K

• Use 5-7% stop losses maximum

• Diversify 40% into Gold (at $4,220, heading to $5,000)

• Never risk more than 2% per trade

❌ DON'T:

• Go all-in trying to catch the bottom

• Use leverage above 3x

• Panic sell if already down 40%+

• Ignore Fed policy – it matters more than politics

Why Gold is Crushing Bitcoin Right Now

While Bitcoin bleeds, Gold hit $4,220 with predictions of $5,000 by 2026. Central banks bought 634 tonnes this year, and India's gold demand surged 92 tonnes in Q3.

ArnavFX Gold Bootcamp students are up 12% this month while crypto traders panic. This is why diversification matters.

Price Predictions: Bulls vs Bears

Bullish Case:

• CoinCodex: $111,414 by December 2025

• Long-term: $200K by 2027

Bearish Case:

• Finance Magnates: $70,000 possible (30% more downside)

• Technical indicators say wait for reversal

ArnavFX Realistic View:

• Q4 2025: Range $88K-$105K

• Q1 2026: Rally to $120K-$135K if Fed cuts

• 2027: $200K still achievable

The Bottom Line

The US government shutdown recovery came too late because Fed hawkishness matters more than political drama. The $870M ETF exodus proves institutions are cautious.

But Bitcoin isn't dead – it's wounded and needs time to heal.

Smart traders are:

• Watching $95K support closely

• Preparing for $88K test

• Scaling in gradually

• Diversifying into Gold and Forex

• Focusing on risk management over quick gains

As our student Prathamesh says: "After blowing accounts, I learned patience. During this crash, I'm waiting for clear signals at $88K. No FOMO."

The shutdown ending didn't save Bitcoin's November. But it's NOT too late to position yourself for the next rally – if you have a plan.

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